Marker size = relative capacity
Canada's clean electricity surplus can't reach where it's needed
Quebec's hydro system produces an estimated 50+ TWh a year more than the province uses, among the largest clean electricity surpluses in North America. Right now that surplus is exported to New York and New England rather than to Ontario. Ontario, meanwhile, faces genuine capacity pressure: EV manufacturing (Volkswagen St. Thomas, Stellantis Windsor), new data centre investment, and electrification demand are growing faster than its 91%-clean, nuclear-dominant grid can absorb without leaning on gas peakers scheduled for phase-out by 2035.
The two provinces sit right next to each other. What's missing is transmission: an east-west interconnection large enough to move Quebec's surplus into Ontario's demand. That isn't a resource problem or a technology problem. It's a capital and political-will problem, since building it requires both provinces to commit to a project that primarily benefits the other. The Darlington SMR, targeting 2029, helps Ontario's supply side, but it doesn't remove the case for interprovincial transmission. If anything, it makes the missing link more conspicuous as one of Canada's most clearly quantified clean-energy infrastructure gaps.
Where the jobs are, and where they're changing
The energy transition isn't an abstraction in these communities — it's a specific, local employment question. This tracker follows the real places where energy jobs are being created, sustained, or put at risk, rather than treating "energy transition" as a single national statistic.
| Community | Sector | Employment picture |
|---|---|---|
| Fort McMurray, AB | Oil sands | ~150,000 Canadians work directly in oil sands operations region-wide. Emissions cap negotiations are the live risk to this employment base. |
| Kitimat, BC | LNG | LNG Canada Phase 1 construction workforce transitioning to permanent operations roles; Cedar LNG (Haisla-led) and Woodfibre LNG represent the next hiring wave if they reach FID. |
| Fort Saskatchewan / Strathcona County, AB | Hydrogen & petrochemicals | Alberta's Industrial Heartland is the leading hydrogen production anchor. New jobs depend on the Edmonton–Kawasaki corridor advancing past MOU stage. |
| St. John's, NL | Offshore oil | Hibernia, Terra Nova, and White Rose support a mature offshore workforce; Muskrat Falls hydro and emerging offshore wind proposals are the diversification story. |
| Windsor-Essex, ON | EV manufacturing | Stellantis and the broader EV supply chain are adding jobs tied directly to Ontario's clean electricity grid capacity. |
| Timmins, ON | Grid & mining power | Regional demand tied to mining electrification, dependent on transmission capacity discussed above. |
| Estevan, SK | Coal transition | Federal coal phase-out has already reshaped this community's employment base — the most advanced real-world transition case in Canadian energy. |
MOU to Final Investment Decision typically takes 5–10 years without accelerated policy support — worth keeping in mind before treating any single announcement as a hiring guarantee.